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E155: In conversation with Tucker Carlson, plus OpenAI chaos explained

11:58 02:09:08

Free speech is dying

/ 10 I don't know why I was fired... I had a lot of opinions that were unpopular... with people who might have influenced my show getting canceled... I really don't know... there's a lot of complicated stuff going on... it's never exactly clear why things happen the way they do... I was not shocked at all... you can't kind of give the finger to everybody and persist in a corporate job... I always said out loud to the supervisors there, you know I work for your company... I'm going to say what I think is true... I said things that were truly hated by a lot of the people who worked there and they let me keep saying them... I just think they didn't think it was worth having some kind of dispute with me 02:25 → 03:06

/ 10 I always think that reason disagreement is essential... it's the alternative to violence... if we don't then we just have to shoot each other... I've always been against that my entire life... I think affirmative action is completely immoral... it is also a recipe over time for violence... I've made that case every single day... I've always had the Dr Seuss view of race relations... we should deemphasize race and elevate Merit achievement hard work character... the things that we can control 27:17 → 27:52

/ 10 Tribalism is based on things that you can't change... if you Stoke division along lines that can't be changed then we're really at a culdesac... our differences can never be resolved... you will always be what you are... you can't change it and the same for me... those are the things that wind up becoming generational conflicts Civil Wars Rwanda... if you convince people to hate others on the basis of their race you've committed a massive sin and you've done a lot to wreck our country 26:49 → 27:19

/ 10 I think the problem is prosperity... there's so much I don't know... there's something about affluence that over time convinces people to kill themselves... there's something about eating too much literally satisfying the most basic need of all that kills you... there's something about forgoing it that enlightens you... there's quite a bit of evidence that temperature changes can be much more radical than we think... how did hundreds or thousands of large animals get frozen so quickly that the meat is still edible thousands of years later... that's an honest question that no one's ever answered... the only potential or even plausible answer is temperature changed so fast it flash froze them 40:12 → 40:53

Importance of free speech platforms

/ 10 I think it's essential to debate things... because if we don't then we just have to shoot each other... that's the alternative to violence... you get two choices... we're going to do it by arguing about it or we're going to do it by force... tribalism is based on things that you can't change... if we don't have anything that ties us together when that day comes when the economic crisis comes... like what's that going to look like it's going to be very scary... so it's really as simple as making things socially unacceptable... it's incumbent on all of us anyone with authority anyone with a voice anyone with money... it's as simple as making things socially unacceptable... we certainly grew up in a world where people smoked on airplanes... it was made totally socially unacceptable... the same for the race stuff... someone should say whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa stop that 31:57 → 32:44

The future ahead

/ 10 I'm pretty pessimistic about a country this big... it's hard to see changing course before we're forced to... there has to be a moment of something that's so egregious that causes a national reconciliation of some kind... there's so much I don't know... there's something about affluence that over time convinces people to kill themselves... I think the problem is prosperity... if you did that in your household with your children your kids would be in rehab or jail or dead... I think there's quite a bit of evidence that previous temperature changes can be much more radical than we think... I've noticed that when people succeed when they get everything they want they destroy themselves 34:55 → 35:36

Free speech is dying

/ 10 the point is uh my intent in hosting that show is the same as my intent in hosting the show we're about to launch on X which is you know do your best to say what you think is true bring perspectives and information that you don't think are widely covered to a larger audience and you know try and stay firm in that admit when you're wrong like just be honest it's it's actually not it's you know I got in this business because I hadn't graduated from college and my father's like it's it's a pretty pure meritocracy in journalism you should do it 01:14:47 → 01:15:16

Importance of free speech platforms

/ 10 the existence of X where anyone around the world or in most countries anyway can get for free a whole range of opinions that aren't controlled that changes everything 01:13:10 → 01:13:23

The future ahead

/ 10 I'm really I'm not just saying this because it it you know aligns with my interest of some kind I mean it I'm worried about the pressure that's brought to bear on that platform on this platform on X because it's the only one the only big one you know huge one international one tens of millions of people hundreds of millions of people like they have to they meaning the people who would like to maintain the status quo kind of have to shut it down and I am just so hoping that you know I can help in any way and that all decent people whatever their views add their voice to a chorus that says no you can't shut down the one big Free Speech platform in the world you can't do that because then it's just dictatorship you're not free if you don't have free information and you can't say what you really think you are subject to a lot of these advertising attacks 01:19:55 → 01:20:46

Free Speech and the Importance of Free Speech Platforms

/ 10 I just feel like that's first of all that's soul death, you're not a free man if you're that constrained in your thinking if you're letting somebody else tell you what you're allowed to think. 01:22:47 → 01:22:57

/ 10 I don't think I'm overstating it and so we're going to try to I hope be one of many different similar efforts to just add to the sum total of information an analysis of that information well the end of the end of democracy and sex would be kind of rough I think. 01:23:07 → 01:23:21

/ 10 I think it's a it's it's a sign of hubris which is always the death of particularly of men huis thinking you have more power than you do when midlife you're like well actually what I really want to do is direct it's like you just one best actress honey go back to acting. 01:24:23 → 01:24:37

/ 10 I think that the vast majority of the country wants our border sealed for some reason the elites don't want that so that's labeled populism. I think the vast majority of the country regrets the forever wars in the Middle East and doesn't want us getting involved in more Wars this sort of hyper interventionism I think that's like a major part of of the platform. 01:39:55 → 01:40:17

/ 10 I think that the best theory on what actually happened here what precipitated all of this was broken and a piece by Reuters and what it said was that there was a letter to the board that was written in the few days before Sam's firing by the board in which they were raising concerns over the development of qar which was a new breakthrough at open AI that allows these language models to do math. 01:47:09 → 01:47:35

The Future Ahead

/ 10 I think the best theory about what happened is that the board but I'd say specifically Ilia um had a panic or moment of Panic or concern you know freak out or whatever concern whatever about this and it combined with probably underlying concerns that the board had about Sam's other activity because he's got his fingers and a lot of so it hits two of the three potential reasons. 01:48:35 → 01:49:04

/ 10 I think that Sam has won and he's going to consolidate his control over the company by the way I thought he already had control I thought that yeah you outlined that in the that he had control apparently he did not. 01:51:36 → 01:51:48

/ 10 I think that what's going to happen in the next few months is that Sam will consolidate his control because he's proven that he has a total loyalty of the troops and they're behind him and there's no choice so why won't he get everything he wants. 01:52:29 → 01:52:42

/ 10 I think it's very clear that Sam has the support of the troops I'm not questioning that but I think it would be a mistake to just see this as some sort of spontaneous groundswell I think there was clearly like some organization to it like I said I think he ran a textbook operation there. 01:55:35 → 01:55:50

/ 10 I think that the economically rational decision for all the employees and for Sam and Greg was to do what they did because it allows them to get an 86 billion valuation and a big secondary done right so that makes complete rational sense that is the rational decision that should have happened and so that did but it doesn't stop whatever underlying chaos was happening that caused this decision to exist in the first place to not come out I just think that the incentives for that decision to come out now for example from the two departing board members is quite high. 01:58:01 → 01:58:39

/ 10 I think that the conclusion here is it's sort of a foregone conclusion which is the board can never fire Sam again I mean they're they're not going to go through that again therefore he has total control it would take a lot it's would tell you a lot so I think that Sam has won and he's going to consolidate his control over the company. 01:51:22 → 01:51:41

/ 10 I think the lesson that I learned is we're at a point where it is so important that you give employees the transparency to reer why they should stay so when you make a decision like this in any company going forward my reaction will be open the kimono and lay out the case bare so if you have to make a CEO transition this is exactly why we did it this was the precipitating events that caused it here here's the evidence and here's what we're going to do about it and I think that that's probably a good takeaway for all boards to learn which is that level of transparency is going to be needed in the future so that folks don't fill in the blanks with their own conspiracy theories. 02:01:52 → 02:02:32

Free Speech Platforms

/ 10 this idea that we're going to solve the AGI problem or alignment issue by creating nonprofit structures I think that this episode proves that's not going to work 02:05:56 → 02:06:06

/ 10 people give VCS and and you know investors a hard time about you know I don't know their existence and how they operate in the world okay fair enough I'm sure there's valid criticisms but the share price and employees participating and the share price going up and secondaries occurring on a regular basis is the most perfect structure that has been created by humans to date for running an organization I think we would all agree 02:06:12 → 02:06:37

/ 10 this board did not have one VC on it it was not right and all the VCS in the company were they were the biggest you know they were the most aggressive tweeters saying you know WTF like what are you doing because they could see their investment Going Up in Smoke yes they had a alignment with the share price but nool as much as you don't like the profit motive it does create alignment and that makes people predictable and that's a good thing and like Adam Smith said in the 1700s the reason we can trust that the Butcher and the baker will serve us our dinner is because they're going to make a profit they're aligned with us and you know we don't look to charity we look to their self-interest 02:06:47 → 02:07:30

/ 10 if you properly align people it can create I think it creates a great Enterprise it creates a potential for great Enterprise for great outcomes great outcomes 02:07:34 → 02:07:43

The Future of Free Speech

/ 10 this whole episode shows anything it shows this structure completely failed 02:05:02 → 02:05:05

The Importance of Free Speech

/ 10 this complexity was justified by this idea of the kill switch that if the AI gets out of control the AI gets out of control we're going to have this board of Super Wise people who are not motivated by a profit incentive 02:04:36 → 02:04:49

/ 10 so we're going to have this board of of of wise Elders who are going to make this you know super intelligent decision 02:04:54 → 02:05:02

/ 10 this board ended up acting in a completely incompetent way either they had good cause to do what they did and didn't explain it which was incompetent or they had no cause at all which was incompetent either way you cannot say that this acted with a high degree of competence 02:05:05 → 02:05:21

/ 10 just because you take out the profit motive does not mean that human beings all of a sudden become Noble they just pursue other agendas basically political agendas or whatever 02:05:43 → 02:05:54

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